Coritiba 2–0 Volta Redonda: Result & Stats

Coritiba

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Volta Redonda

Dellatorre 23', 18'

7/4/2025

Serie B · Round 15Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Coritiba58%

×Draw27%

Volta Redonda16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchVolta Redonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.61

Coritiba

1.46

Volta Redonda

0.61

Coritiba creates 139% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 19 away

1.34

creates per match

0.53

0.70

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Coritiba

1.34

Volta Redonda

0.53

allows per match

Coritiba

0.70

Volta Redonda

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coritiba+0.00on par

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Volta Redonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

84%

Coritiba or Volta Redonda

73%

Draw or Volta Redonda

42%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

30%

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

77%

Coritiba 2+ goals

43%

Coritiba 3+ goals

18%

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

46%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

13%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

79%

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.70 · 74 matches

Volta Redonda away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.34 + Volta Redonda defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Volta Redonda attack 0.53 + Coritiba defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Coritiba scores more

58%

level

27%

Volta Redonda scores more

16%

Coritiba at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Pedro Morisco

Coritiba · G

8.3

Match Events

18'

Dellatorre

23'

Dellatorre↳ Iury Castilho

39'

Wallisson Luiz

46'

Jhonny← Wellington Silva

46'

Lucas Tocantins← Gabriel Pinheiro

46'

Robinho← Andre Luiz

61'

Josué

63'

Filipe Machado

64'

Clayson← Iury Castilho

71'

Vini Paulista← Wallisson

71'

Gustavo Coutinho← Dellatorre

73'

Robson Lucas Oliveira Botelho

74'

Matheus Lucas← Italo

77'

Bruno Melo

78'

Geovane← Filipe Machado

78'

C. de Pena← Josue

82'

Leo Ceara← Rai

84'

Lucas Ronier

85'

Marcos Vinicius

88'

Maicon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaVolta

Overview

39%Possession61%

11Total Shots17

2.11Expected Goals (xG)2.07

3Corners5

24Fouls21

Shots

11Total Shots17

5On Target7

3Off Target7

3Blocked3

8Inside Box7

3Outside Box10

Passing

39%Possession61%

348Total Passes541

287Accurate Passes485

82%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

24Fouls21

6Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Coritiba vs Volta Redonda

Coritiba beat Volta Redonda 2-0 in Serie B on July 4, 2025.

Goals: Dellatorre (18', 23').

Volta Redonda controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Couto Pereira in Curitiba.

Coritiba vs Volta Redonda — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Coritiba vs Volta Redonda