Volta Redonda 3–2 Atletico Paranaense

Volta Redonda

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Atletico Paranaense

Italo 81'

Andre Luiz 67'

MV 55'

B. Zapelli 39'

Alan Kardec 24'

7/19/2025

Serie B · Round 17Raulino de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Volta Redonda36%

×Draw28%

Atletico Paranaense36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volta RedondaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.14

Volta Redonda

1.15

Atletico Paranaense

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

0.84

creates per match

1.60

0.68

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Volta Redonda

0.84

Atletico Paranaense

1.60

allows per match

Volta Redonda

0.68

Atletico Paranaense

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw

64%

Volta Redonda or Atletico Paranaense

72%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

64%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

15%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

68%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

32%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

11%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

68%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

32%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

50%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 0.84 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.15

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.60 + Volta Redonda defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Volta Redonda scores more

36%

level

28%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

36%

Volta Redonda at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Volta Redonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Zapelli

Atletico Paranaense · F

8.0

Match Events

24'

Alan Kardec↳ L. Esquivel

26'

Alan KardecGoal confirmed

39'

B. Zapelli↳ Kaua Moraes

41'

Léo

46'

Andre Luiz← Lucas Tocantins

46'

PK← Bruno Barra

47'

Patrick

51'

Gabriel Bahia

51'

Felipinho

55'

MV↳ Rai

63'

Joao Cruz← Patrick

63'

K. Viveros← Alan Kardec

67'

Andre Luiz↳ Pierre

77'

Wellington Silva← Jhonny

77'

Chay← Pierre

81'

Italo↳ PK

83'

Giuliano← B. Zapelli

83'

Leozinho← Felipinho

84'

Fabricio← Rai

89'

90+3'

90+4'

90+1'

90+1'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VoltaAtletico

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots14

0.93Expected Goals (xG)1.46

3Corners4

17Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots14

6On Target4

3Off Target9

5Blocked1

5Inside Box10

9Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

343Total Passes461

266Accurate Passes379

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls19

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1