Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Volta Redonda

Atletico Paranaense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Volta Redonda

Leozinho 57'

Julimar 26'

11/8/2025

Serie B · Round 36Ligga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atletico Paranaense55%

×Draw28%

Volta Redonda18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaenseExpected goals in this matchVolta Redonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.66

Atletico Paranaense

1.40

Volta Redonda

0.66

Atletico Paranaense creates 112% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.21

creates per match

0.53

0.79

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense

1.21

Volta Redonda

0.53

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense

0.79

Volta Redonda

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

Volta Redonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw

82%

Atletico Paranaense or Volta Redonda

72%

Draw or Volta Redonda

45%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

27%

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

75%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

41%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

17%

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

48%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

14%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

76%

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Volta Redonda away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.21 + Volta Redonda defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.40

Volta Redonda attack 0.53 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more

55%

level

28%

Volta Redonda scores more

18%

Atletico Paranaense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Mendoza

Atletico Paranaense · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

26'

57'

59'

60'

Ygor Catatau← Vitinho Lopes

61'

Thallyson← Igor Morais

73'

Ygor Catatau

80'

J. F. Aguirre Tabares← Leozinho

80'

Patrick← S. Mendoza

81'

Sanchez← Caio Roque

85'

Adsson← Andre Luiz

86'

PK← Rai

90'

Luiz Fernando← Julimar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoVolta

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots15

0.95Expected Goals (xG)1.66

2Corners8

13Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots15

5On Target3

9Off Target7

1Blocked5

7Inside Box8

8Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

424Total Passes412

363Accurate Passes347

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4

Match Recap: Atletico Paranaense vs Volta Redonda

Atletico Paranaense beat Volta Redonda 2-0 in Serie B on November 8, 2025.

Goals: Julimar (26'), Leozinho (57').

Atletico Paranaense controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Ligga Arena in Curitiba.

Atletico Paranaense vs Volta Redonda — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Paranaense vs Volta Redonda