Volta Redonda 3–0 Atletico Goianiense

Volta Redonda

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Goianiense

Bruno Barra 86'

Marquinhos 76'

Ygor Catatau 47'

10/13/2025

Serie B · Round 32Raulino de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Volta Redonda35%

×Draw28%

Atletico Goianiense37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volta RedondaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.21

Volta Redonda

1.15

Atletico Goianiense

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

0.80

creates per match

1.15

1.27

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Volta Redonda

0.80

Atletico Goianiense

1.15

allows per match

Volta Redonda

1.27

Atletico Goianiense

1.50

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Volta Redonda-0.37scores less

Atletico Goianiense-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw

63%

Volta Redonda or Atletico Goianiense

72%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

65%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

14%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

68%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

32%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

11%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

70%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

34%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

48%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.27 · 7 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 0.80 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.15 + Volta Redonda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Volta Redonda scores more

35%

level

28%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

37%

Atletico Goianiense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Rai

Volta Redonda · M

8.0

Match Events

46'

Robert Conceicao← Kauan Rodrigues

47'

Ygor Catatau↳ Vitinho Lopes

48'

Guilherme Romão

56'

Radsley← Luizao

56'

Yuri Alves← F. Martinez

62'

Kelvin← Talisson

66'

Jhonny← Wellington Silva

66'

Marquinhos← Joao Pedro

70'

Bruno Barra← Thallyson

70'

Kayke← Ygor Catatau

74'

Juninho Monteiro← Caio Roque

75'

Maranhao← Jean Dias

76'

Marquinhos↳ Rai

86'

Bruno Barra

90'

Yuri Alves de Aquino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VoltaAtletico

Overview

35%Possession65%

12Total Shots17

3Corners2

12Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots17

8On Target5

3Off Target8

1Blocked4

7Inside Box6

5Outside Box11

Passing

35%Possession65%

279Total Passes529

219Accurate Passes459

78%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls17

0Yellow Cards2