Atletico Goianiense 2–0 Volta Redonda

Atletico Goianiense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Volta Redonda

Sandro Lima 90'

Caio Dantas 88'

6/22/2025

Serie B · Round 13Estadio Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Atletico Goianiense50%

×Draw24%

Volta Redonda26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchVolta Redonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.13

Atletico Goianiense

1.67

Volta Redonda

1.13

Atletico Goianiense creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

1.57

creates per match

1.29

0.96

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.57

Volta Redonda

1.29

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.96

Volta Redonda

1.77

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

-1.00scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.33scores less

Volta Redonda-1.00scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Volta Redonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

74%

Atletico Goianiense or Volta Redonda

76%

Draw or Volta Redonda

50%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

27%

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

81%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

50%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

23%

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

68%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

31%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

66%

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 17 matches

Volta Redonda away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.57 + Volta Redonda defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.67

Volta Redonda attack 1.29 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

50%

level

24%

Volta Redonda scores more

26%

Atletico Goianiense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Ruan Teixeira

Atletico Goianiense · D

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Patrick

31'

Willian Maranhão

40'

Alix Vinicius

46'

Matheus Felipe← Alix Vinicius

46'

Robert Conceicao← Willian Maranhao

46'

Shaylon← Conrado

57'

Robert Santos

59'

Gabriel

68'

Kauan Rodrigues

71'

Andre Luiz← Rai

71'

Henrique Silva← Robinho

71'

Vitinho Lopes← Gabriel Bahia

80'

Sandro Lima← Kauan Rodrigues

80'

Hyuri← Italo

85'

PatrickCard upgrade

88'

Caio Dantas↳ Robert Conceicao

90+9'

Sandro Lima

90+3'

Luizao← Caio Dantas

90+2'

Leo Ceara← MV

90'

Sandro Lima↳ F. Martinez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoVolta

Overview

64%Possession36%

21Total Shots6

8Corners1

13Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots6

6On Target0

9Off Target6

6Blocked0

14Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

480Total Passes277

424Accurate Passes215

88%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls8

5Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Volta Redonda

Atletico Goianiense beat Volta Redonda 2-0 in Serie B on June 22, 2025.

Goals: Caio Dantas (88'), Sandro Lima (90').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (64%) and registered 21 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Serra Dourada in Goiânia, Goiás.

Atletico Goianiense vs Volta Redonda — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Volta Redonda