Volta Redonda 3–0 Atlético Acreano: Result & Stats

Volta Redonda

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Acreano

Núbio Flávio 89' (pen)

João Marcus 84' (OG)

Luciano Naninho 59'

4/27/2019

Serie C · Round 1Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira (Volta Redonda, Rio de Janeiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Volta Redonda65%

×Draw22%

Atlético Acreano14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volta RedondaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Acreano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.70

Volta Redonda

1.85

Atlético Acreano

0.70

Volta Redonda creates 164% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

0.53

0.87

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Volta Redonda

1.57

Atlético Acreano

0.53

allows per match

Volta Redonda

0.87

Atlético Acreano

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Atlético Acreano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw

86%

Volta Redonda or Atlético Acreano

78%

Draw or Atlético Acreano

35%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

39%

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

84%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

55%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

28%

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

50%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

16%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

83%

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 84 matches

Atlético Acreano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 1.57 + Atlético Acreano defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.85

Atlético Acreano attack 0.53 + Volta Redonda defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Volta Redonda scores more

65%

level

22%

Atlético Acreano scores more

14%

Volta Redonda at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Volta Redonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Lucas← Matheus

59'

Luciano Naninho

61'

Ismael← Stenio

66'

Joel← Geovani

76'

Luiz Paulo← Douglas Lima

76'

Núbio Flávio← Saulo Mineiro

84'

João MarcusOwn goal

89'

Bodão← Marcelo

89'

Núbio FlávioPenalty

Volta

Atlético

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Toninho Andrade

76'▲Luiz Paulo←▼Douglas Lima

76'▲Núbio Flávio←▼Saulo Mineiro

89'▲Bodão←▼Marcelo

Volta Redonda substitutes

PauloFlávioBodãoDiegoFelipeÍndioLuanVitor

Manager: Alvaro

59'▲Lucas←▼Matheus

61'▲Ismael←▼Stenio

66'▲Joel←▼Geovani

Atlético Acreano substitutes

LucasIsmaelJoelMillerDouglasBrunoCabocoJoãoTragodaraWevertonDouglas

Match Recap: Volta Redonda vs Atlético Acreano

Volta Redonda beat Atlético Acreano 3-0 in Serie C on April 27, 2019.

Goals: Luciano Naninho (59'), João Marcus (84' o.g.), Núbio Flávio (89' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira (Volta Redonda, Rio de Janeiro).

Volta Redonda vs Atlético Acreano — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Volta Redonda vs Atlético Acreano