Atlético Acreano 1–2 Volta Redonda: Result & Stats

Atlético Acreano

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Volta Redonda

Antonio Douglas 28'

Luan 83'

Núbio Flávio 79'

6/30/2019

Serie C · Round 10Arena da Floresta (Rio Branco, Acre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Acreano46%

×Draw26%

Volta Redonda28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AcreanoExpected goals in this matchVolta Redonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.08

Atlético Acreano

1.46

Volta Redonda

1.08

Atlético Acreano creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 81 away

1.47

creates per match

1.06

1.11

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Atlético Acreano

1.47

Volta Redonda

1.06

allows per match

Atlético Acreano

1.11

Volta Redonda

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Acreano ↓

Volta Redonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Acreano or draw

72%

Atlético Acreano or Volta Redonda

74%

Draw or Volta Redonda

54%

Winning margin

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

22%

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

43%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

18%

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

66%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

29%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

62%

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Acreano at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Volta Redonda away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Acreano attack 1.47 + Volta Redonda defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Volta Redonda attack 1.06 + Atlético Acreano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlético Acreano scores more

46%

level

26%

Volta Redonda scores more

28%

Atlético Acreano at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético Acreano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Saulo Mineiro← João Carlos

28'

Antonio Douglas

36'

Índio← Douglas Lima

46'

Matheus← Weverton

64'

Diogo← Felipe

77'

Núbio Flávio← Bileu

78'

Jo Mendes← Gustavo Ermel

79'

Núbio Flávio

83'

Luan

Atlético

Volta

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Alvaro

46'▲Matheus←▼Weverton

64'▲Diogo←▼Felipe

78'▲Jo Mendes←▼Gustavo Ermel

Atlético Acreano substitutes

MatheusDiogoMendesMillerBrunoCarlosDouglasGeovaniJôJoelViniciusTragodara

Manager: Toninho Andrade

24'▲Saulo Mineiro←▼João Carlos

36'▲Índio←▼Douglas Lima

77'▲Núbio Flávio←▼Bileu

Volta Redonda substitutes

MineiroÍndioFlávioLimaFelipeDiegoGustavoRogerLuiz

Serie C: Atlético Acreano 1–2 Volta Redonda

Volta Redonda beat Atlético Acreano 2-1 in Serie C on June 30, 2019.

Goals: Antonio Douglas (28'), Núbio Flávio (79'), Luan (83').

The match was played at Arena da Floresta (Rio Branco, Acre).

Atlético Acreano vs Volta Redonda — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Atlético Acreano 1–2 Volta Redonda