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Volta Redonda vs Aparecidense — Serie C 2018

Volta Redonda
Volta Redonda
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Aparecidense
Aparecidense
6/26/2022Serie CSerie C · Round 12Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Volta Redonda48%
×Draw27%
Aparecidense24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volta Redonda
1.40
Aparecidense
0.91

Volta Redonda creates 54% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 32 away

creates per match

Volta Redonda
1.57
Aparecidense
0.94

allows per match

Volta Redonda
0.87
Aparecidense
1.22

finishing

Volta Redonda+0.00on par
Aparecidense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Aparecidense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw
76%
Volta Redonda or Aparecidense
73%
Draw or Aparecidense
52%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+
23%
Aparecidense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals
75%
Volta Redonda 2+ goals
41%
Volta Redonda 3+ goals
17%
Aparecidense 1+ goals
60%
Aparecidense 2+ goals
23%
Aparecidense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)
66%
Aparecidense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 84 matches

Aparecidense away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 1.57 + Aparecidense defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Aparecidense attack 0.94 + Volta Redonda defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Volta Redonda scores more
48%
level
27%
Aparecidense scores more
24%

Volta Redonda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Volta Redonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volta Redonda vs Aparecidense

Aparecidense beat Volta Redonda 3-0 in Serie C on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira in Volta Redonda, Rio de Janeiro.