Aparecidense 2–3 Volta Redonda: Result & Stats

Aparecidense

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Volta Redonda

Naldo 81', 59'

Samuel Granada 42', 10'

Robinho 17'

8/26/2023

Serie C · Round 19Estádio Annibal Batista de Toledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Aparecidense40%

×Draw27%

Volta Redonda32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AparecidenseExpected goals in this matchVolta Redonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.13

Aparecidense

1.30

Volta Redonda

1.13

Aparecidense creates 15% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 81 away

1.16

creates per match

1.06

1.19

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Aparecidense

1.16

Volta Redonda

1.06

allows per match

Aparecidense

1.19

Volta Redonda

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aparecidense+0.00on par

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecidense ↓

Volta Redonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Aparecidense or draw

68%

Aparecidense or Volta Redonda

73%

Draw or Volta Redonda

60%

Winning margin

Aparecidense wins by 2+

18%

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Aparecidense 1+ goals

73%

Aparecidense 2+ goals

37%

Aparecidense 3+ goals

14%

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

68%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

31%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Aparecidense (draw refunded)

56%

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecidense at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Volta Redonda away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecidense attack 1.16 + Volta Redonda defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Volta Redonda attack 1.06 + Aparecidense defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aparecidense scores more

40%

level

27%

Volta Redonda scores more

32%

Aparecidense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aparecidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Samuel Granada

17'

Genilson

17'

Robinho

19'

Guilherme Nunes← Evanderson

42'

46'

46'

53'

58'

Danrley← Henrique Silva

58'

Emerson Júnior← Robinho

59'

Naldo

62'

Hugo Borges← Wandson

68'

74'

Raphael Luz← Calyson Rosa

74'

Luizinho← Samuel Granada

74'

Marco Gabriel← Michel

81'

Naldo

82'

Rafa Marcos← Genilson

85'

90+1'

Aparecidense

Volta

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Robinho

▼

Wandson

Marquinho

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Hemerson Maria

19'▲Guilherme Nunes←▼Evanderson

46'▲Alan James←▼Jackson

46'▲Naldo←▼Rafael Goiano

74'▲Raphael Luz←▼Calyson Rosa

82'▲Rafa Marcos←▼Genilson

Aparecidense substitutes

NunesJamesNaldoLuzMarcosMenezesHenriqueFernandesThuramManoelDiogoPedro

Manager: Rogério Corrêa

58'▲Danrley←▼Henrique Silva

58'▲Emerson Júnior←▼Robinho

62'▲Hugo Borges←▼Wandson

74'▲Luizinho←▼Samuel Granada

74'▲Marco Gabriel←▼Michel

Volta Redonda substitutes

DanrleyJúniorBorgesLuizinhoGabrielJeffersonCarvalhoIuryCesar