Volta Redonda 1–0 America Mineiro: Result & Stats

Volta Redonda

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

America Mineiro

Matheus Lucas 90'

6/1/2025

Serie B · Round 10Raulino de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Volta Redonda33%

×Draw31%

America Mineiro37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volta RedondaExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.05

Volta Redonda

0.98

America Mineiro

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

0.80

creates per match

0.84

1.27

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Volta Redonda

0.80

America Mineiro

0.84

allows per match

Volta Redonda

1.27

America Mineiro

1.17

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Volta Redonda-0.37scores less

America Mineiro-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw

63%

Volta Redonda or America Mineiro

69%

Draw or America Mineiro

67%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

12%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

62%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

26%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

8%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

65%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

28%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

47%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.27 · 7 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.17 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 0.80 + America Mineiro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

America Mineiro attack 0.84 + Volta Redonda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Volta Redonda scores more

33%

level

31%

America Mineiro scores more

37%

America Mineiro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Robinho

Volta Redonda · M

7.6

Match Events

49'

Gabriel Bahia

54'

Cauan Barros

63'

Mariano

64'

MV← Vitinho Lopes

65'

Heliardo

68'

Yago Santos← Stenio

72'

Ynaia← Jhonny

72'

Andre Luiz← Henrique Silva

72'

Matheus Lucas← Heliardo

72'

Felipe Amaral← F. Elizari

75'

Marlon Lopes

84'

Sanchez CostaGoal cancelled

86'

PK← Rai

86'

Kaua Diniz← Miqueias

87'

Kauan Cristtyan← Figueiredo

90'

Matheus Lucas↳ Andre Luiz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VoltaAmerica

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots9

6Corners4

11Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots9

3On Target2

4Off Target4

5Blocked3

6Inside Box2

6Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

507Total Passes365

435Accurate Passes301

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Serie B: Volta Redonda 1–0 America Mineiro

Volta Redonda beat America Mineiro 1-0 in Serie B on June 1, 2025.

Goals: Matheus Lucas (90').

Volta Redonda controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Raulino de Oliveira in Rio de Janeiro.

Volta Redonda vs America Mineiro — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Volta Redonda 1–0 America Mineiro