America Mineiro 2–1 Volta Redonda: Result & Stats

America Mineiro

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Volta Redonda

Willian Bigode 81', 31'

Sanchez 55' (pen)

9/29/2025

Serie B · Round 29Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

America Mineiro44%

×Draw25%

Volta Redonda31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchVolta Redonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.30

America Mineiro

1.60

Volta Redonda

1.30

America Mineiro creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

1.43

creates per match

1.29

1.31

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.43

Volta Redonda

1.29

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.31

Volta Redonda

1.77

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-1.00scores less than expected

finishing

America Mineiro-0.32scores less

Volta Redonda-1.00scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Volta Redonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

69%

America Mineiro or Volta Redonda

75%

Draw or Volta Redonda

56%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

23%

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

80%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

47%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

22%

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

73%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

37%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

59%

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 19 matches

Volta Redonda away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.43 + Volta Redonda defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.60

Volta Redonda attack 1.29 + America Mineiro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

America Mineiro scores more

44%

level

25%

Volta Redonda scores more

31%

America Mineiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Willian Bigode

America Mineiro · F

8.2

Match Events

31'

Willian Bigode↳ Julio Cesar

55'

SanchezPenalty

64'

Fabinho← Yago Souza

72'

PK← Rai

72'

Leo Ceara← MV

73'

Maguinho← Julio Cesar

74'

Yago Santos← Paulinho

81'

Willian Bigode

84'

Emerson Santos← Aloisio

84'

Miqueias← Arthur Sousa

84'

Igor Maduro← Andre Luiz

84'

Kayke← Joao Pedro

90+2'

Adsson← Jhonny

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaVolta

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots12

7Corners3

14Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target4

7Off Target5

0Blocked3

4Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

354Total Passes416

306Accurate Passes371

86%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls15

Match Recap: America Mineiro vs Volta Redonda

America Mineiro beat Volta Redonda 2-1 in Serie B on September 29, 2025.

Goals: Willian Bigode (31', 81'), Sanchez (55' pen).

Volta Redonda controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte.

America Mineiro vs Volta Redonda — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: America Mineiro vs Volta Redonda