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Völsungur vs KFG — 2. Deild 2026

Völsungur
Völsungur
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
KFG
KFG
B. Bjarnason 27'
5/27/20232. Deild2. Deild · Round 4PCC völlurinn Húsavík

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Völsungur59%
×Draw20%
KFG21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Völsungur
2.23
KFG
1.28

Völsungur creates 74% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 50 away

creates per match

Völsungur
1.99
KFG
1.24

allows per match

Völsungur
1.32
KFG
2.46

finishing

Völsungur+0.00on par
KFG+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völsungur ↓

KFG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Völsungur or draw
79%
Völsungur or KFG
80%
Draw or KFG
41%

Winning margin

Völsungur wins by 2+
36%
KFG wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Völsungur 1+ goals
89%
Völsungur 2+ goals
65%
Völsungur 3+ goals
38%
KFG 1+ goals
72%
KFG 2+ goals
37%
KFG 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Völsungur (draw refunded)
73%
KFG (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völsungur at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.32 · 75 matches

KFG away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völsungur attack 1.99 + KFG defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.23

KFG attack 1.24 + Völsungur defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Völsungur scores more
59%
level
20%
KFG scores more
21%

Völsungur at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Völsungur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
O. Hakonarson
23'
O. Hakonarson
27'
B. Bjarnason
90'
O. Hakonarson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Völsungur 1–3 KFG

KFG beat Völsungur 3-1 in 2. Deild on May 27, 2023.

Goals: O. Hakonarson (5', 23', 90'), B. Bjarnason (27').

The match was played at PCC völlurinn Húsavík in Húsavík.