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KFG vs Völsungur — 2. Deild 2026

KFG
KFG
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Völsungur
Völsungur
H. Ornolfsson 43'
A. B. Valencia 9'
J. Barddal 3'
S. Thorsteinsson 36' (pen)
8/2/20232. Deild2. Deild · Round 15Samsung völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

KFG43%
×Draw21%
Völsungur36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFG
2.04
Völsungur
1.85

KFG creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 76 away

creates per match

KFG
2.12
Völsungur
1.55

allows per match

KFG
2.16
Völsungur
1.95

finishing

KFG+0.00on par
Völsungur+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFG ↓

Völsungur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

KFG or draw
64%
KFG or Völsungur
79%
Draw or Völsungur
57%

Winning margin

KFG wins by 2+
24%
Völsungur wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

KFG 1+ goals
87%
KFG 2+ goals
60%
KFG 3+ goals
33%
Völsungur 1+ goals
84%
Völsungur 2+ goals
55%
Völsungur 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

KFG (draw refunded)
55%
Völsungur (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFG at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.16 · 51 matches

Völsungur away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.95 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFG attack 2.12 + Völsungur defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.04

Völsungur attack 1.55 + KFG defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KFG scores more
43%
level
21%
Völsungur scores more
36%

KFG at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KFG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
J. Barddal
9'
A. B. Valencia
36'
S. ThorsteinssonPenalty
43'
H. Ornolfsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KFG vs Völsungur

KFG beat Völsungur 3-1 in 2. Deild on August 2, 2023.

Goals: J. Barddal (3'), A. B. Valencia (9'), S. Thorsteinsson (36' pen), H. Ornolfsson (43').

The match was played at Samsung völlurinn in Garðabær.