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Völsungur vs Grindavik — 1. Deild 2026

Völsungur
Völsungur
Preview
18:00
Grindavik
Grindavik
7/24/20261. Deild1. Deild · Round 15
40%
Völsungur
model favours
40%22%38%

Völsungur score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Völsungur40%
×Draw22%
Grindavik38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Völsungur
1.91
Grindavik
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 30 away

creates per match

Völsungur
1.44
Grindavik
1.50

allows per match

Völsungur
2.22
Grindavik
2.37

finishing

Völsungur+0.00on par
Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völsungur ↓

Grindavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Völsungur or draw
62%
Völsungur or Grindavik
78%
Draw or Grindavik
60%

Winning margin

Völsungur wins by 2+
22%
Grindavik wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Völsungur 1+ goals
85%
Völsungur 2+ goals
57%
Völsungur 3+ goals
30%
Grindavik 1+ goals
84%
Grindavik 2+ goals
55%
Grindavik 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Völsungur (draw refunded)
51%
Grindavik (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völsungur at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völsungur attack 1.44 + Grindavik defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.91

Grindavik attack 1.50 + Völsungur defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Völsungur scores more
40%
level
22%
Grindavik scores more
38%

Völsungur at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Völsungur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 88% of Völsungur’s matches
  • Grindavik score first in only 26% of matches
  • 75% of Völsungur’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 4 goals
  • 22% of Grindavik’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Völsungur
LDDDW
Grindavik
WLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Völsungur host Grindavik

July 24, 2026: Völsungur take on Grindavik in 1. Deild. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.