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Grindavik vs Völsungur — 1. Deild 2026

Grindavik
Grindavik
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Völsungur
Völsungur
I. Sigurðsson 90'
E. Baldvinsson 68' (OG)
J. Róbertsson 90', 38', 26'
G. Sörensson 70'
6/21/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 9Stakkavíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Grindavik41%
×Draw21%
Völsungur38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grindavik
1.98
Völsungur
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

creates per match

Grindavik
1.32
Völsungur
1.59

allows per match

Grindavik
2.20
Völsungur
2.65

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par
Völsungur+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

Völsungur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw
62%
Grindavik or Völsungur
79%
Draw or Völsungur
59%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+
22%
Völsungur wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals
86%
Grindavik 2+ goals
59%
Grindavik 3+ goals
31%
Völsungur 1+ goals
85%
Völsungur 2+ goals
56%
Völsungur 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)
52%
Völsungur (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

Völsungur away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.32 + Völsungur defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.98

Völsungur attack 1.59 + Grindavik defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Grindavik scores more
41%
level
21%
Völsungur scores more
38%

Grindavik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Grindavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
J. Róbertsson
38'
J. Róbertsson
49'
B. Baldvinsson
68'
E. BaldvinssonOwn goal
70'
G. Sörensson
81'
D. Adalsteinsson
85'
H. Eysteinsson
90+3'
90'
I. Sigurðsson
90'
J. Róbertsson
Grindavik
Völsungur
H. Hródmarsson
Manager: H. Hródmarsson
A. Friðriksson
Manager: A. Friðriksson

Match Recap: Grindavik vs Völsungur

Völsungur beat Grindavik 4-2 in 1. Deild on June 21, 2025.

Goals: J. Róbertsson (26', 38', 90'), E. Baldvinsson (68' o.g.), G. Sörensson (70'), I. Sigurðsson (90').

The match was played at Stakkavíkurvöllur in Grindavík.