Völsungur 2–0 Grindavik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Völsungur

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Grindavik

J. Robertsson 48'

A. Kristjansson 24'

8/30/2025

1. Deild · Round 20PCC völlurinn Húsavík

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Völsungur39%

×Draw21%

Grindavik40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VölsungurExpected goals in this matchGrindavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.91

Völsungur

1.89

Grindavik

1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 27 away

1.44

creates per match

1.59

2.22

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Völsungur

1.44

Grindavik

1.59

allows per match

Völsungur

2.22

Grindavik

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Völsungur+0.00on par

Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völsungur ↓

Grindavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Völsungur or draw

60%

Völsungur or Grindavik

79%

Draw or Grindavik

61%

Winning margin

Völsungur wins by 2+

21%

Grindavik wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Völsungur 1+ goals

85%

Völsungur 2+ goals

56%

Völsungur 3+ goals

29%

Grindavik 1+ goals

85%

Grindavik 2+ goals

57%

Grindavik 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Völsungur (draw refunded)

50%

Grindavik (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völsungur at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völsungur attack 1.44 + Grindavik defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.89

Grindavik attack 1.59 + Völsungur defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Völsungur scores more

39%

level

21%

Grindavik scores more

40%

Grindavik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grindavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

C. Alexandersson← C. Alexandersson

17'

B. Baldvinsson← I. Albizuri

21'

S. Parla

24'

A. Kristjansson

37'

A. Finnbogason← A. Finnbogason

45'

R. Gunnarsson

48'

J. Robertsson

78'

M. Gavilan

85'

R. Gunnarsson← R. Gunnarsson

87'

S. Thorsteinsson← S. Parla

90+1'

I. Salmi← I. Salmi

90+1'

O. Steingrimsson← J. Robertsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff