Völsungur 2–1 Fjolnir: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Völsungur

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fjolnir

E. Aðalsteinsson 90+4', 37' (pen)

Í. Þórhallsson 82' (OG)

5/24/2025

1. Deild · Round 4PCC völlurinn Húsavík

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Völsungur30%

×Draw22%

Fjolnir49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VölsungurExpected goals in this matchFjolnir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.02

Völsungur

1.54

Fjolnir

2.02

Fjolnir creates 31% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

1.44

creates per match

1.82

2.22

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Völsungur

1.44

Fjolnir

1.82

allows per match

Völsungur

2.22

Fjolnir

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Völsungur+0.00on par

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völsungur ↓

Fjolnir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Völsungur or draw

51%

Völsungur or Fjolnir

78%

Draw or Fjolnir

70%

Winning margin

Völsungur wins by 2+

14%

Fjolnir wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Völsungur 1+ goals

79%

Völsungur 2+ goals

45%

Völsungur 3+ goals

20%

Fjolnir 1+ goals

87%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

60%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Völsungur (draw refunded)

38%

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völsungur at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völsungur attack 1.44 + Fjolnir defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Fjolnir attack 1.82 + Völsungur defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Völsungur scores more

30%

level

22%

Fjolnir scores more

49%

Fjolnir at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

V. Hjalmarsson

36'

A. Arnason

36'

R. Haraldsson

37'

E. AðalsteinssonPenalty

39'

X. Cardenas

45+1'

E. Adalsteinsson

59'

H. Hilmarsson← V. Hjálmarsson

72'

B. Hafstein← Ó. Jónasson

73'

E. Guðmundsson← B. Baldvinsson

76'

I. Salmi

80'

D. Aðalsteinsson← G. Torfason

82'

Þ. Jóhannsson← Á. Sigursteinsson

82'

Þ. Orrason← Á. Árnason

82'

Í. ÞórhallssonOwn goal

88'

S. Þórsteinsson← Ismael

90+2'

B. T. Hafstein

90+4'

E. Aðalsteinsson

Völsungur

Fjolnir

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: A. Friðriksson

73'▲E. Guðmundsson←▼B. Baldvinsson

80'▲D. Aðalsteinsson←▼G. Torfason

88'▲S. Þórsteinsson←▼Ismael

Völsungur substitutes

GuðmundssonAðalsteinssonÞórsteinssonKristjánssonSigurpálssonSörenssonSteingrímsson

Manager: Ú. Jökulsson

59'▲H. Hilmarsson←▼V. Hjálmarsson

72'▲B. Hafstein←▼Ó. Jónasson

82'▲Þ. Jóhannsson←▼Á. Sigursteinsson

82'▲Þ. Orrason←▼Á. Árnason

Fjolnir substitutes

HilmarssonHafsteinJóhannssonOrrasonSigurjónssonJörgenssonHarðarson