Fjolnir 1–1 Völsungur: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Fjolnir

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Völsungur

B. T. Hafstein 87' (pen)

S. Parla 89' (pen)

7/30/2025

1. Deild · Round 15Fjölnisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fjolnir45%

×Draw20%

Völsungur35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FjolnirExpected goals in this matchVölsungur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.92

Fjolnir

2.18

Völsungur

1.92

Fjolnir creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.71

creates per match

1.59

2.24

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Fjolnir

1.71

Völsungur

1.59

allows per match

Fjolnir

2.24

Völsungur

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Völsungur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Völsungur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw

65%

Fjolnir or Völsungur

80%

Draw or Völsungur

55%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+

26%

Völsungur wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals

89%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

64%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

37%

Völsungur 1+ goals

85%

Völsungur 2+ goals

57%

Völsungur 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

56%

Völsungur (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Völsungur away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 1.71 + Völsungur defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.18

Völsungur attack 1.59 + Fjolnir defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fjolnir scores more

45%

level

20%

Völsungur scores more

35%

Fjolnir at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

S. Sigmarsson

72'

S. Thorsteinsson← B. Baldvinsson

77'

S. Sigmarsson← S. Sigmarsson

77'

E. Vilhjalmsson← E. Vilhjalmsson

87'

B. T. HafsteinPenalty

89'

S. ParlaPenalty

90+1'

X. Cardenas

90+3'

O. Steingrimsson← X. Cardenas

90+4'

E. Gudmundsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff