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Volov Shumen vs Svetkavitsa Targovishte — Third League - Northeast 2018

Volov Shumen
Volov Shumen
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
11/8/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Volov Shumen54%
×Draw21%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volov Shumen
2.08
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.33

Volov Shumen creates 56% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 105 away

creates per match

Volov Shumen
1.85
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.29

allows per match

Volov Shumen
1.38
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
2.30

finishing

Volov Shumen+0.00on par
Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volov Shumen ↓

Svetkavitsa Targovishte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Volov Shumen or draw
76%
Volov Shumen or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
79%
Draw or Svetkavitsa Targovishte
46%

Winning margin

Volov Shumen wins by 2+
32%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Volov Shumen 1+ goals
87%
Volov Shumen 2+ goals
61%
Volov Shumen 3+ goals
34%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
74%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
38%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Volov Shumen (draw refunded)
69%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volov Shumen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 55 matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.30 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volov Shumen attack 1.85 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.08

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.29 + Volov Shumen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Volov Shumen scores more
54%
level
21%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
24%

Volov Shumen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Volov Shumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Volov Shumen 5–0 Svetkavitsa Targovishte

Volov Shumen beat Svetkavitsa Targovishte 5-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 8, 2025.