Svetkavitsa Targovishte 0–3 Volov Shumen

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

FT

0 – 3

Volov Shumen

5/9/2026

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte53%

×Draw22%

Volov Shumen24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Svetkavitsa TargovishteExpected goals in this matchVolov Shumen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.24

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.93

Volov Shumen

1.24

Svetkavitsa Targovishte creates 56% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 55 away

1.51

creates per match

1.22

1.26

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.51

Volov Shumen

1.22

allows per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.26

Volov Shumen

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Volov Shumen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svetkavitsa Targovishte ↓

Volov Shumen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or draw

76%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or Volov Shumen

78%

Draw or Volov Shumen

47%

Winning margin

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+

31%

Volov Shumen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals

85%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals

57%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals

30%

Volov Shumen 1+ goals

71%

Volov Shumen 2+ goals

35%

Volov Shumen 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)

69%

Volov Shumen (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Volov Shumen away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.51 + Volov Shumen defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.93

Volov Shumen attack 1.22 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more

53%

level

22%

Volov Shumen scores more

24%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Svetkavitsa Targovishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff