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Volov Shumen vs Kaliakra 1923 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Volov Shumen
Volov Shumen
FT
0 – 1
Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
10/28/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 10Stadion Panayot Volov (Šumen (Shumen))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Volov Shumen58%
×Draw22%
Kaliakra 192320%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volov Shumen
1.89
Kaliakra 1923
1.02

Volov Shumen creates 85% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 12 away

creates per match

Volov Shumen
1.85
Kaliakra 1923
0.67

allows per match

Volov Shumen
1.38
Kaliakra 1923
1.92

finishing

Volov Shumen+0.00on par
Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volov Shumen ↓

Kaliakra 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Volov Shumen or draw
80%
Volov Shumen or Kaliakra 1923
78%
Draw or Kaliakra 1923
42%

Winning margin

Volov Shumen wins by 2+
34%
Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Volov Shumen 1+ goals
85%
Volov Shumen 2+ goals
56%
Volov Shumen 3+ goals
29%
Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
64%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
27%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Volov Shumen (draw refunded)
74%
Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volov Shumen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 55 matches

Kaliakra 1923 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volov Shumen attack 1.85 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kaliakra 1923 attack 0.67 + Volov Shumen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Volov Shumen scores more
58%
level
22%
Kaliakra 1923 scores more
20%

Volov Shumen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Volov Shumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Volov Shumen 0–1 Kaliakra 1923

Kaliakra 1923 beat Volov Shumen 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov (Šumen (Shumen)).