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Kaliakra 1923 vs Volov Shumen — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
FT
7 – 2
Volov Shumen
Volov Shumen
4/13/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 23Gradski stadion (Kavarna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaliakra 192352%
×Draw21%
Volov Shumen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaliakra 1923
2.10
Volov Shumen
1.46

Kaliakra 1923 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 55 away

creates per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.85
Volov Shumen
1.22

allows per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.69
Volov Shumen
2.35

finishing

Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par
Volov Shumen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaliakra 1923 ↓

Volov Shumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kaliakra 1923 or draw
73%
Kaliakra 1923 or Volov Shumen
79%
Draw or Volov Shumen
48%

Winning margin

Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
31%
Volov Shumen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
88%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
62%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
35%
Volov Shumen 1+ goals
77%
Volov Shumen 2+ goals
43%
Volov Shumen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
66%
Volov Shumen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaliakra 1923 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Volov Shumen away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaliakra 1923 attack 1.85 + Volov Shumen defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.10

Volov Shumen attack 1.22 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kaliakra 1923 scores more
52%
level
21%
Volov Shumen scores more
27%

Kaliakra 1923 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kaliakra 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Kaliakra 1923 7–2 Volov Shumen

Kaliakra 1923 beat Volov Shumen 7-2 in Third League - Northeast on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Kavarna).