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Volov Shumen vs Dunav ot Ruse II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Volov Shumen
Volov Shumen
FT
0 – 1
Dunav ot Ruse II
Dunav ot Ruse II
11/6/2022Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 12Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Volov Shumen66%
×Draw19%
Dunav ot Ruse II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volov Shumen
2.35
Dunav ot Ruse II
1.06

Volov Shumen creates 122% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 27 away

creates per match

Volov Shumen
1.85
Dunav ot Ruse II
0.74

allows per match

Volov Shumen
1.38
Dunav ot Ruse II
2.85

finishing

Volov Shumen+0.00on par
Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volov Shumen ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Volov Shumen or draw
84%
Volov Shumen or Dunav ot Ruse II
81%
Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II
34%

Winning margin

Volov Shumen wins by 2+
43%
Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Volov Shumen 1+ goals
90%
Volov Shumen 2+ goals
68%
Volov Shumen 3+ goals
41%
Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals
65%
Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals
29%
Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Volov Shumen (draw refunded)
81%
Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volov Shumen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 55 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volov Shumen attack 1.85 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.35

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Volov Shumen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Volov Shumen scores more
66%
level
19%
Dunav ot Ruse II scores more
16%

Volov Shumen at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Volov Shumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Volov Shumen 0–1 Dunav ot Ruse II

Dunav ot Ruse II beat Volov Shumen 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov in Shumen.