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Dunav ot Ruse II vs Volov Shumen — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dunav ot Ruse II
Dunav ot Ruse II
FT
0 – 1
Volov Shumen
Volov Shumen
5/14/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 27Stadion Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav ot Ruse II43%
×Draw23%
Volov Shumen34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav ot Ruse II
1.77
Volov Shumen
1.54

Dunav ot Ruse II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 55 away

creates per match

Dunav ot Ruse II
1.19
Volov Shumen
1.22

allows per match

Dunav ot Ruse II
1.85
Volov Shumen
2.35

finishing

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par
Volov Shumen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav ot Ruse II ↓

Volov Shumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dunav ot Ruse II or draw
66%
Dunav ot Ruse II or Volov Shumen
77%
Draw or Volov Shumen
57%

Winning margin

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+
23%
Volov Shumen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals
83%
Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals
53%
Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals
26%
Volov Shumen 1+ goals
79%
Volov Shumen 2+ goals
45%
Volov Shumen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)
56%
Volov Shumen (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav ot Ruse II at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

Volov Shumen away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 1.19 + Volov Shumen defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.77

Volov Shumen attack 1.22 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more
43%
level
23%
Volov Shumen scores more
34%

Dunav ot Ruse II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dunav ot Ruse II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Dunav ot Ruse II 0–1 Volov Shumen

Volov Shumen beat Dunav ot Ruse II 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dunav in Rousse.