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Volov Shumen vs Benkovski Byala — Third League - Northeast 2018

Volov Shumen
Volov Shumen
FT
1 – 0
Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
3/24/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 20Stadion Panayot Volov (Šumen (Shumen))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Volov Shumen76%
×Draw14%
Benkovski Byala9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volov Shumen
2.73
Benkovski Byala
0.84

Volov Shumen creates 225% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 20 away

creates per match

Volov Shumen
1.85
Benkovski Byala
0.30

allows per match

Volov Shumen
1.38
Benkovski Byala
3.60

finishing

Volov Shumen+0.00on par
Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volov Shumen ↓

Benkovski Byala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Volov Shumen or draw
91%
Volov Shumen or Benkovski Byala
86%
Draw or Benkovski Byala
24%

Winning margin

Volov Shumen wins by 2+
55%
Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Volov Shumen 1+ goals
93%
Volov Shumen 2+ goals
75%
Volov Shumen 3+ goals
50%
Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
57%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
21%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Volov Shumen (draw refunded)
89%
Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volov Shumen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 55 matches

Benkovski Byala away — creates 0.30, concedes 3.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volov Shumen attack 1.85 + Benkovski Byala defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.73

Benkovski Byala attack 0.30 + Volov Shumen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Volov Shumen scores more
76%
level
14%
Benkovski Byala scores more
9%

Volov Shumen at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Volov Shumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Volov Shumen 1–0 Benkovski Byala

Volov Shumen beat Benkovski Byala 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov (Šumen (Shumen)).