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Benkovski Byala vs Volov Shumen — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
FT
1 – 1
Volov Shumen
Volov Shumen
10/7/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 7Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Byala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benkovski Byala48%
×Draw23%
Volov Shumen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Byala
1.86
Volov Shumen
1.42

Benkovski Byala creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

creates per match

Benkovski Byala
1.37
Volov Shumen
1.22

allows per match

Benkovski Byala
1.63
Volov Shumen
2.35

finishing

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par
Volov Shumen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Byala ↓

Volov Shumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Benkovski Byala or draw
70%
Benkovski Byala or Volov Shumen
77%
Draw or Volov Shumen
52%

Winning margin

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
26%
Volov Shumen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
84%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
55%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
28%
Volov Shumen 1+ goals
76%
Volov Shumen 2+ goals
41%
Volov Shumen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
62%
Volov Shumen (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Byala at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Volov Shumen away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Byala attack 1.37 + Volov Shumen defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.86

Volov Shumen attack 1.22 + Benkovski Byala defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Benkovski Byala scores more
48%
level
23%
Volov Shumen scores more
30%

Benkovski Byala at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benkovski Byala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benkovski Byala vs Volov Shumen

Benkovski Byala and Volov Shumen drew 1-1 in Third League - Northeast on October 7, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Byala).