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Volna vs Orsha — 1. Division 2018

Volna
Volna
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Orsha
Orsha
4/13/20241. Division1. Division · Round 2Stadyen Valna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Volna49%
×Draw22%
Orsha29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volna
1.96
Orsha
1.48

Volna creates 32% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 128 away

creates per match

Volna
1.74
Orsha
1.36

allows per match

Volna
1.60
Orsha
2.17

finishing

Volna+0.00on par
Orsha+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna ↓

Orsha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Volna or draw
71%
Volna or Orsha
78%
Draw or Orsha
51%

Winning margin

Volna wins by 2+
28%
Orsha wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Volna 1+ goals
86%
Volna 2+ goals
58%
Volna 3+ goals
31%
Orsha 1+ goals
77%
Orsha 2+ goals
43%
Orsha 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Volna (draw refunded)
62%
Orsha (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 129 matches

Orsha away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna attack 1.74 + Orsha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

Orsha attack 1.36 + Volna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Volna scores more
49%
level
22%
Orsha scores more
29%

Volna at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Volna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Volna 3–0 Orsha

Volna beat Orsha 3-0 in 1. Division on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Valna in Pinsk.