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Orsha vs Volna — 1. Division 2018

Orsha
Orsha
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Volna
Volna
11/4/20231. Division1. Division · Round 31Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Orsha34%
×Draw25%
Volna42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsha
1.35
Volna
1.53

Volna creates 13% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 127 away

creates per match

Orsha
1.19
Volna
1.29

allows per match

Orsha
1.77
Volna
1.51

finishing

Orsha+0.00on par
Volna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsha ↓

Volna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orsha or draw
58%
Orsha or Volna
75%
Draw or Volna
66%

Winning margin

Orsha wins by 2+
15%
Volna wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Orsha 1+ goals
74%
Orsha 2+ goals
39%
Orsha 3+ goals
15%
Volna 1+ goals
78%
Volna 2+ goals
45%
Volna 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Orsha (draw refunded)
45%
Volna (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsha at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.77 · 125 matches

Volna away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.51 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsha attack 1.19 + Volna defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Volna attack 1.29 + Orsha defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Orsha scores more
34%
level
25%
Volna scores more
42%

Volna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Volna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orsha vs Volna

Volna beat Orsha 1-0 in 1. Division on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Haradski in Orsha.