Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1–3 Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

11/4/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Volna Nizhegorodskaya26%

×Draw22%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volna NizhegorodskayaExpected goals in this matchOlimp-Dolgoprudny II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.93

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

1.31

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

1.93

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

1.25

creates per match

1.29

2.56

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

1.25

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

1.29

allows per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

2.56

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volna Nizhegorodskaya+0.00on par

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna Nizhegorodskaya ↓

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Volna Nizhegorodskaya or draw

48%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya or Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

78%

Draw or Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

74%

Winning margin

Volna Nizhegorodskaya wins by 2+

11%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1+ goals

73%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2+ goals

38%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 3+ goals

14%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 1+ goals

85%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 2+ goals

57%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Volna Nizhegorodskaya (draw refunded)

33%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.56 · 16 matches

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack 1.25 + Olimp-Dolgoprudny II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II attack 1.29 + Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Volna Nizhegorodskaya scores more

26%

level

22%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II scores more

52%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Olimp-Dolgoprudny II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff