Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 1–1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

9/14/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II39%

×Draw26%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimp-Dolgoprudny IIExpected goals in this matchVolna Nizhegorodskaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.31

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

1.40

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.36

creates per match

1.56

1.07

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

1.36

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

1.56

allows per match

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

1.07

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II+0.00on par

Volna Nizhegorodskaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II ↓

Volna Nizhegorodskaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II or draw

65%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II or Volna Nizhegorodskaya

74%

Draw or Volna Nizhegorodskaya

61%

Winning margin

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II wins by 2+

18%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 1+ goals

75%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 2+ goals

41%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 3+ goals

17%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1+ goals

73%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2+ goals

38%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II (draw refunded)

53%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Volna Nizhegorodskaya away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II attack 1.36 + Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack 1.56 + Olimp-Dolgoprudny II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II scores more

39%

level

26%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya scores more

35%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olimp-Dolgoprudny II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff