Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1–0 Lada Dimitrovgrad

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lada Dimitrovgrad

9/6/2020

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Volna Nizhegorodskaya38%

×Draw25%

Lada Dimitrovgrad37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volna NizhegorodskayaExpected goals in this matchLada Dimitrovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.40

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

1.44

Lada Dimitrovgrad

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 14 away

1.38

creates per match

1.50

1.30

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

1.38

Lada Dimitrovgrad

1.50

allows per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

1.30

Lada Dimitrovgrad

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volna Nizhegorodskaya+0.00on par

Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna Nizhegorodskaya ↓

Lada Dimitrovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Volna Nizhegorodskaya or draw

63%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya or Lada Dimitrovgrad

75%

Draw or Lada Dimitrovgrad

62%

Winning margin

Volna Nizhegorodskaya wins by 2+

18%

Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1+ goals

76%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2+ goals

42%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 3+ goals

18%

Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

75%

Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

41%

Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Volna Nizhegorodskaya (draw refunded)

51%

Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack 1.38 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 1.50 + Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Volna Nizhegorodskaya scores more

38%

level

25%

Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more

37%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Volna Nizhegorodskaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff