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Lada Dimitrovgrad vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya — Second League - Group 4 2020

Lada Dimitrovgrad
Lada Dimitrovgrad
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
5/12/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Stadion Start

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad35%
×Draw29%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.11
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 39 away

creates per match

Lada Dimitrovgrad
0.86
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.31

allows per match

Lada Dimitrovgrad
0.93
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.36

finishing

Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par
Volna Nizhegorodskaya+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Dimitrovgrad ↓

Volna Nizhegorodskaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lada Dimitrovgrad or draw
64%
Lada Dimitrovgrad or Volna Nizhegorodskaya
71%
Draw or Volna Nizhegorodskaya
65%

Winning margin

Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
14%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
67%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
30%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
10%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1+ goals
67%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2+ goals
31%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
50%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Volna Nizhegorodskaya away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 0.86 + Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.11

Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack 1.31 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more
35%
level
29%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya scores more
36%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Volna Nizhegorodskaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lada Dimitrovgrad vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya

Volna Nizhegorodskaya beat Lada Dimitrovgrad 3-2 in Second League - Group 4 on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Start in Ulyanovsk.