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Völkermarkt vs Donau Klagenfurt — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Völkermarkt
Völkermarkt
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Donau Klagenfurt
Donau Klagenfurt
10/3/2025Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 11Lilienberg-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Völkermarkt53%
×Draw22%
Donau Klagenfurt26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Völkermarkt
2.04
Donau Klagenfurt
1.38

Völkermarkt creates 48% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 44 away

creates per match

Völkermarkt
2.20
Donau Klagenfurt
1.36

allows per match

Völkermarkt
1.40
Donau Klagenfurt
1.89

finishing

Völkermarkt+0.00on par
Donau Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völkermarkt ↓

Donau Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Völkermarkt or draw
74%
Völkermarkt or Donau Klagenfurt
78%
Draw or Donau Klagenfurt
47%

Winning margin

Völkermarkt wins by 2+
31%
Donau Klagenfurt wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Völkermarkt 1+ goals
87%
Völkermarkt 2+ goals
60%
Völkermarkt 3+ goals
33%
Donau Klagenfurt 1+ goals
75%
Donau Klagenfurt 2+ goals
40%
Donau Klagenfurt 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Völkermarkt (draw refunded)
67%
Donau Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völkermarkt at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 90 matches

Donau Klagenfurt away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völkermarkt attack 2.20 + Donau Klagenfurt defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.04

Donau Klagenfurt attack 1.36 + Völkermarkt defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Völkermarkt scores more
53%
level
22%
Donau Klagenfurt scores more
26%

Völkermarkt at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Völkermarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Völkermarkt 2–3 Donau Klagenfurt

Donau Klagenfurt beat Völkermarkt 3-2 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 3, 2025.

The match was played at Lilienberg-Arena in Völkermarkt.