Völkermarkt 4–2 Bad Gleichenberg: Result & Stats

Völkermarkt

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Bad Gleichenberg

E. Brdjanovic 83'

V. Muharemovic 70', 23'

M. Maierhofer 2'

L. Kaufmann 39', 32'

11/2/2018

Regionalliga - Mitte · Round 15Lilienberg-Arena (Völkermarkt)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Völkermarkt30%

×Draw21%

Bad Gleichenberg48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VölkermarktExpected goals in this matchBad Gleichenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

2.04

Völkermarkt

1.58

Bad Gleichenberg

2.04

Bad Gleichenberg creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

1.13

creates per match

1.75

2.33

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Völkermarkt

1.13

Bad Gleichenberg

1.75

allows per match

Völkermarkt

2.33

Bad Gleichenberg

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Völkermarkt+0.00on par

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völkermarkt ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Völkermarkt or draw

52%

Völkermarkt or Bad Gleichenberg

79%

Draw or Bad Gleichenberg

70%

Winning margin

Völkermarkt wins by 2+

14%

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Völkermarkt 1+ goals

79%

Völkermarkt 2+ goals

47%

Völkermarkt 3+ goals

21%

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals

87%

Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals

60%

Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Völkermarkt (draw refunded)

38%

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völkermarkt at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völkermarkt attack 1.13 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Völkermarkt defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Völkermarkt scores more

30%

level

21%

Bad Gleichenberg scores more

48%

Bad Gleichenberg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

23'

32'

39'

46'

E. Brdjanovic← M. Kuester

46'

A. Gashi← M. Hochleitner

70'

V. Muharemovic

71'

R. Horvath← M. Hölbling

74'

A. Pester← G. Reicht

83'

E. Brdjanovic

90+4'

A. Kräuter← H. Jakovljevic

90+1'

M. Kaltak← V. Muharemovic

Völkermarkt

Bad

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Muharemov

Gaber

▼

Kuester

Manager: L. Orga

46'▲E. Brdjanovic←▼M. Kuester

90+4'▲A. Kräuter←▼H. Jakovljevic

90+1'▲M. Kaltak←▼V. Muharemovic

Völkermarkt substitutes

BrdjanovicKräuterKaltakJakovljevicStadler

Manager: G. Kaufmann

46'▲A. Gashi←▼M. Hochleitner

71'▲R. Horvath←▼M. Hölbling

74'▲A. Pester←▼G. Reicht

Bad Gleichenberg substitutes

GashiHorvathPesterMeierhofer

Regionalliga - Mitte: Völkermarkt 4–2 Bad Gleichenberg

Völkermarkt beat Bad Gleichenberg 4-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on November 2, 2018.

Goals: M. Maierhofer (2'), V. Muharemovic (23', 70'), L. Kaufmann (32', 39'), E. Brdjanovic (83').

The match was played at Lilienberg-Arena (Völkermarkt).

Völkermarkt vs Bad Gleichenberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Regionalliga - Mitte: Völkermarkt 4–2 Bad Gleichenberg