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Bad Gleichenberg vs Völkermarkt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Völkermarkt
Völkermarkt
6/7/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 30Bad Gleichenberg Arena (Bad Gleichenberg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg63%
×Draw19%
Völkermarkt19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Gleichenberg
2.46
Völkermarkt
1.28

Bad Gleichenberg creates 92% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg
2.39
Völkermarkt
0.93

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg
1.62
Völkermarkt
2.53

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par
Völkermarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

Völkermarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw
81%
Bad Gleichenberg or Völkermarkt
81%
Draw or Völkermarkt
37%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
41%
Völkermarkt wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
91%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
70%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
44%
Völkermarkt 1+ goals
72%
Völkermarkt 2+ goals
37%
Völkermarkt 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
77%
Völkermarkt (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

Völkermarkt away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + Völkermarkt defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.46

Völkermarkt attack 0.93 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more
63%
level
19%
Völkermarkt scores more
19%

Bad Gleichenberg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Bad Gleichenberg 4–1 Völkermarkt

Bad Gleichenberg beat Völkermarkt 4-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on June 7, 2019.

The match was played at Bad Gleichenberg Arena (Bad Gleichenberg).