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Volgar Astrakhan vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
4/24/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan32%
×Draw29%
Torpedo Moskva39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
1.02
Torpedo Moskva
1.16

Torpedo Moskva creates 14% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 104 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
0.99
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.09
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
61%
Volgar Astrakhan or Torpedo Moskva
71%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
68%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
12%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
64%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
27%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
8%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
69%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
32%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
45%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.99 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
32%
level
29%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
39%

Torpedo Moskva at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Volgar Astrakhan 1–1 Torpedo Moskva

Volgar Astrakhan and Torpedo Moskva drew 1-1 in First League on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom in Astrakhan'.