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Torpedo Moskva vs Volgar Astrakhan — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
11/6/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Torpedo Moskva49%
×Draw27%
Volgar Astrakhan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.40
Volgar Astrakhan
0.89

Torpedo Moskva creates 57% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 76 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
Volgar Astrakhan
0.93

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
Volgar Astrakhan
1.24

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
76%
Torpedo Moskva or Volgar Astrakhan
73%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
51%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
24%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
75%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
41%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
17%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
59%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
22%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
67%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
49%
level
27%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
24%

Torpedo Moskva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Torpedo Moskva 0–3 Volgar Astrakhan

Volgar Astrakhan beat Torpedo Moskva 3-0 in First League on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.