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Volgar Astrakhan vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2018

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
4/10/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan40%
×Draw28%
Ska-khabarovsk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
1.23
Ska-khabarovsk
1.08

Volgar Astrakhan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 142 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
0.99
Ska-khabarovsk
1.07

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.09
Ska-khabarovsk
1.46

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
68%
Volgar Astrakhan or Ska-khabarovsk
72%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
60%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
17%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
71%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
35%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
13%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
66%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
29%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
55%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.46 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.99 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.07 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
40%
level
28%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
32%

Volgar Astrakhan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volgar Astrakhan vs Ska-khabarovsk

Volgar Astrakhan and Ska-khabarovsk drew 1-1 in First League on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom in Astrakhan'.