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Ska-khabarovsk vs Volgar Astrakhan — First League 2018

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
9/10/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk47%
×Draw28%
Volgar Astrakhan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.33
Volgar Astrakhan
0.87

Ska-khabarovsk creates 53% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.43
Volgar Astrakhan
0.93

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.81
Volgar Astrakhan
1.24

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
76%
Ska-khabarovsk or Volgar Astrakhan
72%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
53%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
22%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
74%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
38%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
15%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
58%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
22%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
66%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
47%
level
28%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
24%

Ska-khabarovsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ska-khabarovsk vs Volgar Astrakhan

Ska-khabarovsk and Volgar Astrakhan drew 1-1 in First League on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.