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Volgar Astrakhan vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
5/31/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Spring Season Gold - 16Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan40%
×Draw31%
Rodina Moskva II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
1.08
Rodina Moskva II
0.87

Volgar Astrakhan creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.04
Rodina Moskva II
1.11

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
0.63
Rodina Moskva II
1.11

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
71%
Volgar Astrakhan or Rodina Moskva II
69%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
60%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
16%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
66%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
29%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
10%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
58%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
22%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
58%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.04 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.11 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
40%
level
31%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
29%

Volgar Astrakhan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volgar Astrakhan vs Rodina Moskva II

Volgar Astrakhan beat Rodina Moskva II 2-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on May 31, 2026.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Astrakhan.