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Rodina Moskva II vs Volgar Astrakhan — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
4/12/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Spring Season Gold - 8Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rodina Moskva II31%
×Draw28%
Volgar Astrakhan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva II
1.08
Volgar Astrakhan
1.31

Volgar Astrakhan creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.11
Volgar Astrakhan
1.19

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.44
Volgar Astrakhan
1.04

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw
58%
Rodina Moskva II or Volgar Astrakhan
72%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
69%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
12%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
66%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
29%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
10%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
73%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
38%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
42%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.11 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.19 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more
31%
level
28%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
42%

Volgar Astrakhan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Rodina Moskva II 2–1 Volgar Astrakhan

Rodina Moskva II beat Volgar Astrakhan 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina in Moscow.