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Volgar Astrakhan vs Rodina Moskva — First League 2018

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
10/28/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan30%
×Draw29%
Rodina Moskva41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
0.98
Rodina Moskva
1.21

Rodina Moskva creates 23% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 68 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
0.99
Rodina Moskva
1.32

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.09
Rodina Moskva
0.97

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
59%
Volgar Astrakhan or Rodina Moskva
71%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
70%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
11%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
62%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
26%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
8%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
70%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
34%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
42%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.99 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Rodina Moskva attack 1.32 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
30%
level
29%
Rodina Moskva scores more
41%

Rodina Moskva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Volgar Astrakhan 0–4 Rodina Moskva

Rodina Moskva beat Volgar Astrakhan 4-0 in First League on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom in Astrakhan'.