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Rodina Moskva vs Volgar Astrakhan — First League 2018

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
8/7/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Rodina Moskva48%
×Draw27%
Volgar Astrakhan25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
1.39
Volgar Astrakhan
0.92

Rodina Moskva creates 51% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 76 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
1.53
Volgar Astrakhan
0.93

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
0.91
Volgar Astrakhan
1.24

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
75%
Rodina Moskva or Volgar Astrakhan
73%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
52%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
23%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
75%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
40%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
16%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
60%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
23%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
66%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.91 · 68 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 1.53 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
48%
level
27%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
25%

Rodina Moskva at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Rodina Moskva 0–0 Volgar Astrakhan

Rodina Moskva and Volgar Astrakhan drew 0-0 in First League on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.