Volgar Astrakhan 2–1 Nizhny Novgorod

Volgar Astrakhan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

7/30/2017

First League · Round 5Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom (Astrakhan')

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan31%

×Draw30%

Nizhny Novgorod40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volgar AstrakhanExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.15

Volgar Astrakhan

0.97

Nizhny Novgorod

1.15

Nizhny Novgorod creates 19% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 54 away

1.01

creates per match

1.20

1.09

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.01

Nizhny Novgorod

1.20

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.09

Nizhny Novgorod

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw

60%

Volgar Astrakhan or Nizhny Novgorod

70%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

69%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

11%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

62%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

25%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

7%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

68%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

32%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

43%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.01 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.20 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

31%

level

30%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

40%

Nizhny Novgorod at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff