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Nizhny Novgorod vs Volgar Astrakhan — First League 2026

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
9/9/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod48%
×Draw28%
Volgar Astrakhan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.32
Volgar Astrakhan
0.84

Nizhny Novgorod creates 57% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 78 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.41
Volgar Astrakhan
0.92

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
0.77
Volgar Astrakhan
1.23

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
76%
Nizhny Novgorod or Volgar Astrakhan
72%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
52%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
22%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
73%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
38%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
15%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
57%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
21%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
67%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.77 · 56 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.41 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.92 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
48%
level
28%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
24%

Nizhny Novgorod at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Volgar Astrakhan

Nizhny Novgorod beat Volgar Astrakhan 1-0 in First League on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.