Volgar Astrakhan 0–2 Metallurg Lipetsk

Volgar Astrakhan

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Metallurg Lipetsk

10/9/2021

First League · Round 16Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan50%

×Draw25%

Metallurg Lipetsk24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volgar AstrakhanExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Lipetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.02

Volgar Astrakhan

1.58

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.02

Volgar Astrakhan creates 55% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 19 away

0.99

creates per match

0.95

1.09

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan

0.99

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.95

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.09

Metallurg Lipetsk

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw

76%

Volgar Astrakhan or Metallurg Lipetsk

75%

Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk

50%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

26%

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

79%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

47%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

21%

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

64%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

27%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

67%

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.99 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.58

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.95 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

50%

level

25%

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

24%

Volgar Astrakhan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff