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Metallurg Lipetsk vs Volgar Astrakhan — First League 2018

Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
4/23/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 34Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk29%
×Draw29%
Volgar Astrakhan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Lipetsk
0.96
Volgar Astrakhan
1.23

Volgar Astrakhan creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
0.68
Volgar Astrakhan
0.93

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.53
Volgar Astrakhan
1.24

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw
58%
Metallurg Lipetsk or Volgar Astrakhan
71%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
71%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
10%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
62%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
25%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
7%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
71%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
35%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
40%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.68 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.96

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
29%
level
29%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
42%

Volgar Astrakhan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Metallurg Lipetsk 1–0 Volgar Astrakhan

Metallurg Lipetsk beat Volgar Astrakhan 1-0 in First League on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Lipetsk.