Volgar Astrakhan 1–1 Irtysh Omsk: Result & Stats

Volgar Astrakhan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Irtysh Omsk

D. Vorobjev 41'

D. Arshakyan 20'

9/23/2020

First League · Round 11Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan41%

×Draw29%

Irtysh Omsk30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volgar AstrakhanExpected goals in this matchIrtysh Omsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.98

Volgar Astrakhan

1.21

Irtysh Omsk

0.98

Volgar Astrakhan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 21 away

1.00

creates per match

0.86

1.09

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.00

Irtysh Omsk

0.86

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.09

Irtysh Omsk

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Irtysh Omsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw

70%

Volgar Astrakhan or Irtysh Omsk

71%

Draw or Irtysh Omsk

59%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

18%

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

70%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

34%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

12%

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

62%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

26%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

58%

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.00 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.86 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

41%

level

29%

Irtysh Omsk scores more

30%

Volgar Astrakhan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

10'

20'

29'

35'

41'

49'

54'

A. Sagitov← D. Vedernikov

54'

A. Zenin← Y. Pugachev

59'

Andrey Mendel

62'

Sergey Podoksenov

64'

A. Krotov← A. Shleermakher

67'

A. Pogosov← A. Mendel

72'

A. Butenko← D. Vorobjev

77'

V. Sergeev← D. Poluboyarinov

80'

R. Gordienko← V. Steklov

81'

Ruslan Gordienko

Volgar3-4-3

Irtysh4-4-2

94

⚽

Arshakyan

17

▼

8

21

9

20

▼

4

30

5

3

16

22

6

▼

27

4

7

20

▼

Poluboyar

18

▼

Mendel

11

Bolonin

78

⚽

▼

Vorobjev

10

▼

Pugachev

69

Kozlov

Manager: V. Panov

54'▲A. Sagitov←▼D. Vedernikov

54'▲A. Zenin←▼Y. Pugachev

67'▲A. Pogosov←▼A. Mendel

72'▲A. Butenko←▼D. Vorobjev

77'▲V. Sergeev←▼D. Poluboyarinov

Volgar Astrakhan substitutes

8Sagitov14Zenin95Pogosov71Butenko15Sergeev3Kornyushin17Lesnikov30Saganovich33Zamaliev

Manager: E. Kharlachev

64'▲A. Krotov←▼A. Shleermakher

80'▲R. Gordienko←▼V. Steklov

Irtysh Omsk substitutes

23Krotov18Gordienko1Avdyushkin2Krikunenko10Tretjakov24Kuznetsov29Kerbs

Match Recap: Volgar Astrakhan vs Irtysh Omsk

Volgar Astrakhan and Irtysh Omsk drew 1-1 in First League on September 23, 2020.

Goals: D. Arshakyan (20'), D. Vorobjev (41').

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom in Astrakhan'.

Volgar Astrakhan vs Irtysh Omsk — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Volgar Astrakhan vs Irtysh Omsk