Irtysh Omsk 1–0 Volgar Astrakhan: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Volgar Astrakhan

3/20/2021

First League · Round 31Red Star Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Irtysh Omsk27%

×Draw29%

Volgar Astrakhan44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchVolgar Astrakhan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.23

Irtysh Omsk

0.91

Volgar Astrakhan

1.23

Volgar Astrakhan creates 35% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 76 away

0.57

creates per match

0.93

1.52

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

0.57

Volgar Astrakhan

0.93

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.52

Volgar Astrakhan

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

56%

Irtysh Omsk or Volgar Astrakhan

71%

Draw or Volgar Astrakhan

73%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

9%

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

60%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

23%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

6%

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

71%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

35%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

39%

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.57 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.91

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

27%

level

29%

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

44%

Volgar Astrakhan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff