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Volgar Astrakhan vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2018

Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
10/17/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan36%
×Draw28%
Fakel Voronezh36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volgar Astrakhan
1.15
Fakel Voronezh
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 89 away

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan
0.99
Fakel Voronezh
1.20

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan
1.09
Fakel Voronezh
1.31

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw
64%
Volgar Astrakhan or Fakel Voronezh
72%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
64%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
15%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
68%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
32%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
11%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
68%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
32%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
50%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.99 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more
36%
level
28%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
36%

Volgar Astrakhan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Volgar Astrakhan 0–2 Fakel Voronezh

Fakel Voronezh beat Volgar Astrakhan 2-0 in First League on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom in Astrakhan'.